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Uncategorized | 832 Posts
September
23

For release:
September 22, 2025

California home sales rebound in August as lower rates lift demand, C.A.R. says

  • Existing, single-family home sales totaled 264,240 in August on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 0.9 percent from 261,820 in July and down 0.2 percent from 264,640 in August 2024.

  • August's statewide median home price was $899,140, up 1.7 percent from $884,050 in July and up 1.2 percent from $888,740 in August 2024.

  • Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 0.4 percent.

SACRAMENTO (Sept. 22) – A modest improvement in mortgage rates and stabilizing home prices boosted California home sales in August, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/2025-08-Sales-and-Price

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 264,240 in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

August home sales activity edged up 0.9 percent from the 261,820 homes sold in July and slipped 0.2 percent from a year ago, when 264,640 homes were sold on an annualized basis. August's sales level remained slightly below last year's revised level and marked the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines. It was also the 35th straight month in which the seasonally adjusted sales rate remained below the 300,000 benchmark.

Statewide pending sales in August rose 8.3 percent from July as mortgage rates fell to a 10-month low. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales edged higher by 0.2 percent for the first time in nine months. Rates have continued to ease in recent weeks, reaching their lowest level in a year amid mounting signs of economic weakness.

"Despite a softer-than-expected home buying season this year, a bounce back in pending sales last month is an encouraging sign that sales could improve the rest of the year," said C.A.R. President Heather Ozur, a Palm Springs REALTOR®. "Many prospective homebuyers have been holding out in hopes of lower mortgage rates, and the declining trend in rates observed in the last few weeks could be the nudge that draw them back to the market."

The statewide median home price rose to $899,140 in August, rebounding after three straight months of year-over-year declines. The price increased 1.7 percent from July — recovering much of the previous month's drop — and was 1.2 percent higher than the same time last year. This monthly gain also surpassed the long-term July-to-August average of 1.2 percent. With prices showing stability in August and mortgage rates falling to their lowest level in a year, the housing market may see improved support in the months ahead.

 

"Soft sales demand led to a steady decline in California's median home price for three consecutive months through early summer," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "However, with a slight uptick in the median price in August and a stabilization in the number of reduced-price listings last month, the market appears to have found a short-term balance between supply and demand. "If mortgage rates maintain their current levels or decline further before year-end, positive year-over-year home price growth may continue in the next few months."

Other key points from C.A.R.'s August 2025 resale housing report include:

  • At the regional level, only two of California's major regions posted year-over-year sales gains on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The Far North edged out a gain of 2.9 percent increase from a year ago, while the Central Coast surpassed last year's sales by 1.6 percent. In contrast, the San Francisco Bay Area experienced the largest regional decline with sales falling 4.1 percent, while Southern California (-3.7 percent) and the Central Valley (-3.5 percent) both experienced moderate sales dips.
  •  
  • At the county level, 24 of the 53 counties tracked by C.A.R. recorded year-over-year sales gains in August, with nearly half of those counties achieving double-digit growth. Mariposa County (81.8 percent) led the way with the highest sales growth from last year, followed by Lassen (46.7 percent) and Kings (36.1 percent). Twenty-five counties experienced annual sales declines in August, with eight counties recording sales drops of more than 10 percent including Yuba (-35.3 percent), Calaveras (-31.3 percent), and Tehama (-24.0 percent).
  •  
  • In August, three of California's five major regions recorded year-over-year median home prices gains, while the other two experienced a decline. The Central Coast led the way with a 6.3 percent price increase from August 2024. The San Francisco Bay Area median price climbed 2.8 percent year-over-year, and the Southern California region's median price rose a mild 1.2 percent. The median price in the Far North region dropped 3.1 percent compared to last year, and slipped 1.0 percent in the Central Valley,

     

  • At the county level, 29 of California's 53 counties posted year-over-year median home price gains. Santa Barbara (32.6 percent) recorded the sharpest increase of all counties, followed by Monterey (20.8 percent) and Trinity (10.7 percent). Twenty-one counties registered annual median price declines, with Del Norte (-21.7 percent) dropping the most, while Mendocino (-17.3 percent), and Plumas (-12.3 percent) recorded the second and the third steepest annual price declines in August.
  • The Unsold Inventory Index (UII) edged higher in August compared to July, as housing demand remained soft despite showing some slight improvement. The index was 3.9 months in August, a slight increase from 3.7 in July and up from 3.2 months in August 2024. Total active listings were up 23.5 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace of growth since March 2024 — and slipped from the 69-month high recorded in the prior month. August marked the fourth consecutive month of decelerating inventory growth, suggesting that while supply conditions remain favorable for buyers, momentum on the supply side may continue to ease as the market follows its seasonal pattern and begins to decelerate in the fourth quarter.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 31 days in August, up from 22 days in August 2024.
  • C.A.R.'s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 98.3 percent in August 2025 and 100 percent in August 2024.
  • The statewide median price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $426, down from $427 in August a year ago.
  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.59 percent in August, up from 6.50 percent in August 2024, according to C.A.R.'s calculations based on Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage survey data.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 53 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for 120 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Sacramento.

# # #

August 2025 County Sales and Price Activity
(and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

August 2025

Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes

Sales

State/Region/County

August

2025

July

2025

 

August

2024

 

Price MTM% Chg

Price YTY% Chg

Sales MTM% Chg

Sales YTY% Chg

Calif. Single-family home

$899,140

$884,050

 

$888,740

 

1.7%

1.2%

0.9%

-0.2%

Calif. Condo/Townhome

$649,950

$647,000

 

$665,000

 

0.5%

-2.3%

-0.3%

-5.7%

Los Angeles Metro Area

$837,040

$845,500

 

$827,000

 

-1.0%

1.2%

-9.2%

-4.7%

Central Coast

$1,100,000

$1,115,680

 

$1,035,000

 

-1.4%

6.3%

-1.8%

1.6%

Central Valley

$495,000

$500,000

 

$500,000

 

-1.0%

-1.0%

-6.9%

-3.5%

Far North

$385,000

$397,000

 

$397,250

 

-3.0%

-3.1%

-6.1%

2.9%

Inland Empire

$600,130

$589,020

 

$585,260

 

1.9%

2.5%

-4.6%

-2.8%

San Francisco Bay Area

$1,275,000

$1,300,000

 

$1,240,000

 

-1.9%

2.8%

-8.3%

-4.1%

Southern California

$873,480

$875,030

 

$863,500

 

-0.2%

1.2%

-7.3%

-3.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alameda

$1,269,000

$1,250,000

 

$1,272,500

 

1.5%

-0.3%

-10.3%

-5.0%

Contra Costa

$850,000

$862,500

 

$841,950

 

-1.4%

1.0%

-4.3%

-7.5%

Marin

$1,522,500

$1,625,000

 

$1,450,000

 

-6.3%

5.0%

-21.9%

-3.3%

Napa

$975,000

$925,000

 

$976,500

 

5.4%

-0.2%

-15.2%

1.5%

San Francisco

$1,500,000

$1,637,380

 

$1,528,500

 

-8.4%

-1.9%

-19.6%

-1.3%

San Mateo

$1,988,000

$2,100,000

 

$1,900,000

 

-5.3%

4.6%

-12.8%

-1.8%

Santa Clara

$1,900,000

$1,900,000

 

$1,851,830

 

0.0%

2.6%

-1.2%

-3.0%

Solano

$620,000

$593,680

 

$600,000

 

4.4%

3.3%

-11.1%

-13.4%

Sonoma

$832,500

$845,450

 

$809,160

 

-1.5%

2.9%

-6.0%

5.9%

Southern California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imperial

$405,000

$415,000

 

$410,640

 

-2.4%

-1.4%

-31.3%

12.2%

Los Angeles

$930,720

$911,360

 

$919,890

 

2.1%

1.2%

-16.0%

-12.3%

Orange

$1,385,000

$1,400,000

 

$1,400,000

 

-1.1%

-1.1%

-4.3%

1.4%

Riverside

$625,000

$630,000

 

$618,940

r

-0.8%

1.0%

-6.2%

-7.0%

San Bernardino

$503,030

$486,290

 

$499,000

r

3.4%

0.8%

-1.1%

3.6%

San Diego

$1,025,000

$1,040,000

 

$1,010,000

 

-1.4%

1.5%

1.3%

-0.6%

Ventura

$937,500

$949,500

 

$965,000

 

-1.3%

-2.8%

-7.3%

16.7%

Central Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monterey

$1,087,150

$1,022,500

 

$900,000

 

6.3%

20.8%

0.7%

4.3%

San Luis Obispo

$935,400

$940,000

 

$942,500

 

-0.5%

-0.8%

3.4%

5.0%

Santa Barbara

$1,408,650

$1,095,500

 

$1,062,450

 

28.6%

32.6%

-2.3%

0.0%

Santa Cruz

$1,397,000

$1,395,500

 

$1,300,000

 

0.1%

7.5%

-11.3%

-4.5%

Central Valley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno

$446,390

$440,000

 

$434,940

 

1.5%

2.6%

-7.4%

0.4%

Glenn

$350,000

$375,000

 

$325,000

 

-6.7%

7.7%

11.8%

26.7%

Kern

$415,000

$390,000

 

$399,500

 

6.4%

3.9%

-3.3%

4.6%

Kings

$380,000

$365,000

 

$380,000

 

4.1%

0.0%

1.0%

36.1%

Madera

$445,000

$445,000

 

$430,750

 

0.0%

3.3%

-11.0%

-7.9%

Merced

$418,500

$440,000

 

$415,000

 

-4.9%

0.8%

3.7%

6.3%

Placer

$675,000

$687,480

 

$675,000

 

-1.8%

0.0%

-12.8%

-12.0%

Sacramento

$550,000

$559,500

 

$559,000

 

-1.7%

-1.6%

-8.8%

-5.4%

San Benito

$742,500

$799,900

 

$812,500

 

-7.2%

-8.6%

8.6%

11.8%

San Joaquin

$535,000

$530,000

 

$560,000

 

0.9%

-4.5%

-2.0%

-13.1%

Stanislaus

$499,720

$475,000

 

$475,000

 

5.2%

5.2%

1.8%

0.0%

Tulare

$378,700

$382,990

 

$380,000

 

-1.1%

-0.3%

-17.7%

-4.8%

Far North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Butte

$468,000

$456,500

 

$458,000

 

2.5%

2.2%

-24.6%

-12.8%

Lassen

$221,000

$311,000

 

$236,000

 

-28.9%

-6.4%

22.2%

46.7%

Plumas

$480,000

$434,500

 

$547,420

 

10.5%

-12.3%

63.3%

22.5%

Shasta

$368,000

$380,000

 

$383,300

 

-3.2%

-4.0%

-7.0%

6.5%

Siskiyou

$300,000

$365,000

 

$305,500

 

-17.8%

-1.8%

13.9%

10.8%

Tehama

$335,000

$370,000

 

$380,000

 

-9.5%

-11.8%

-32.1%

-24.0%

Trinity

$310,000

$240,500

 

$280,000

 

28.9%

10.7%

-12.5%

0.0%

Other Calif. Counties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amador

$469,500

$415,000

 

$431,000

 

13.1%

8.9%

0.0%

-8.3%

Calaveras

$540,000

$456,750

 

$505,000

 

18.2%

6.9%

-16.2%

-31.3%

Del Norte

$352,500

$369,000

 

$450,000

 

-4.5%

-21.7%

6.7%

6.7%

El Dorado

$679,500

$717,500

 

$650,000

 

-5.3%

4.5%

3.6%

-3.4%

Humboldt

$422,500

$450,000

 

$434,500

 

-6.1%

-2.8%

-11.7%

-5.4%

Lake

$355,000

$364,500

 

$329,950

 

-2.6%

7.6%

39.6%

8.1%

Mariposa

$415,000

$450,000

 

$410,000

 

-7.8%

1.2%

-13.0%

81.8%

Mendocino

$469,500

$467,000

 

$567,500

 

0.5%

-17.3%

27.3%

3.7%

Mono

$1,175,000

$1,064,000

 

$1,160,000

 

10.4%

1.3%

0.0%

11.1%

Nevada

$560,000

$549,500

 

$560,000

 

1.9%

0.0%

-4.5%

8.2%

Sutter

$435,000

$460,000

 

$416,500

 

-5.4%

4.4%

8.5%

0.0%

Tuolumne

$435,000

$455,000

 

$420,950

 

-4.4%

3.3%

-9.5%

-4.3%

Yolo

$599,450

$635,000

 

$620,960

 

-5.6%

-3.5%

0.0%

-1.7%

Yuba

$440,000

$440,000

 

$448,000

 

0.0%

-1.8%

-22.5%

-35.3%

r = revised
NA = not available

 

August 2025 County Unsold Inventory and Days on Market
(Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted)

August 2025

Unsold Inventory Index

Median Time on Market

State/Region/County

August

2025

July

2025

 

August

2024

 

August

2025

July

2025

 

August

2024

 

Calif. Single-family home

3.9

3.7

 

3.2

 

31.0

28.0

 

22.0

 

Calif. Condo/Townhome

4.4

4.5

 

3.2

 

37.0

34.0

 

25.0

 

Los Angeles Metro Area

4.1

3.9

 

3.3

 

33.0

30.0

 

24.0

 

Central Coast

3.8

3.9

 

3.5

 

26.0

22.0

 

21.0

 

Central Valley

3.8

3.6

 

3.0

 

31.0

27.0

 

22.0

 

Far North

5.5

5.2

 

4.8

 

32.0

32.0

 

31.0

 

Inland Empire

4.6

4.5

 

3.8

 

42.0

38.0

 

29.0

 

San Francisco Bay Area

2.9

2.7

 

2.5

 

25.0

24.0

 

20.0

 

Southern California

4.0

3.8

 

3.2

 

32.0

29.0

 

22.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alameda

2.6

2.4

 

2.4

 

16.0

16.0

 

14.0

 

Contra Costa

3.1

3.1

 

2.4

 

21.0

18.0

 

16.0

 

Marin

4.2

2.8

 

3.5

 

77.5

62.0

 

52.0

 

Napa

8.4

7.0

 

6.4

 

82.0

56.0

 

61.5

 

San Francisco

2.3

1.5

 

2.5

 

37.0

36.0

 

41.5

 

San Mateo

2.2

1.8

 

2.1

 

13.0

13.0

 

12.0

 

Santa Clara

1.9

1.9

 

1.7

 

13.0

13.0

 

10.0

 

Solano

4.2

3.6

 

2.9

 

47.0

49.0

 

39.5

 

Sonoma

3.7

3.7

 

3.4

 

67.0

63.0

 

54.5

 

Southern California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Imperial

3.3

2.3

 

3.0

 

24.0

25.0

 

8.0

 

Los Angeles

4.3

3.7

 

3.1

 

28.0

27.0

 

21.0

 

Orange

3.2

3.3

 

2.7

 

32.5

28.0

 

22.0

 

Riverside

4.3

4.2

 

3.4

r

46.0

40.0

 

30.0

r

San Bernardino

5.1

5.2

 

4.6

r

34.0

35.0

 

28.0

r

San Diego

3.3

3.5

 

2.8

 

27.0

24.0

 

17.0

 

Ventura

3.6

3.5

 

3.3

 

41.5

41.0

 

32.0

 

Central Coast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monterey

4.2

4.2

 

4.1

 

21.0

22.5

 

18.0

 

San Luis Obispo

3.6

3.7

 

3.2

 

32.5

32.0

 

27.0

 

Santa Barbara

3.6

3.6

 

3.4

 

20.5

20.0

 

19.5

 

Santa Cruz

4.1

4.0

 

3.3

 

23.5

16.0

 

18.0

 

Central Valley

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fresno

3.8

3.5

 

3.3

 

27.0

17.0

 

21.0

 

Glenn

2.9

3.1

 

2.8

 

39.0

40.0

 

24.0

 

Kern

3.3

3.2

 

2.9

 

26.0

28.0

 

15.0

 

Kings

3.1

3.2

 

2.2

 

33.5

35.0

 

28.0

 

Madera

6.6

6.1

 

5.7

 

55.0

38.5

 

28.0

 

Merced

3.4

3.8

 

3.3

 

33.0

27.0

 

33.0

 

Placer

3.9

3.5

 

2.9

 

34.5

30.0

 

28.0

 

Sacramento

3.2

3.0

 

2.5

 

28.0

27.0

 

21.0

 

San Benito

4.3

4.5

 

4.5

 

43.0

20.0

 

31.5

 

San Joaquin

4.5

4.5

 

3.0

 

39.0

31.0

 

24.0

 

Stanislaus

3.7

3.9

 

3.2

 

25.5

25.0

 

16.5

 

Tulare

4.3

3.3

 

3.0

 

32.0

33.0

 

24.0

 

Far North

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Butte

4.5

3.2

 

3.1

 

26.0

30.0

 

20.0

 

Lassen

6.3

8.2

 

8.5

 

46.5

33.0

 

64.0

 

Plumas

5.1

8.8

 

5.4

 

32.0

44.5

 

24.0

 

Shasta

4.9

4.6

 

4.3

 

35.0

28.0

 

34.0

 

Siskiyou

7.7

8.8

 

7.4

 

38.0

30.5

 

40.0

 

Tehama

7.8

5.0

 

6.2

 

42.0

54.5

 

42.0

 

Trinity

18.1

15.6

 

14.9

 

45.0

34.0

 

65.0

 

Other Calif. Counties

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amador

7.3

7.6

 

6.3

 

49.0

58.0

 

30.0

 

Calaveras

7.3

6.3

 

4.8

 

39.0

46.5

 

34.0

 

Del Norte

6.6

7.6

 

7.7

 

49.5

61.0

 

29.0

 

El Dorado

4.9

5.5

 

4.3

 

33.5

36.0

 

29.5

 

Humboldt

6.0

5.6

 

5.2

 

39.5

29.5

 

36.5

 

Lake

8.0

11.2

 

7.2

 

63.0

60.0

 

44.0

 

Mariposa

7.3

6.5

 

10.6

 

56.0

24.0

 

27.0

 

Mendocino

8.4

10.8

 

7.1

 

93.5

95.0

 

68.5

 

Mono

3.4

4.3

 

4.1

 

37.0

12.0

 

38.0

 

Nevada

5.1

5.2

 

5.3

 

59.0

40.0

 

36.0

 

Sutter

4.2

4.6

 

3.2

 

44.0

30.0

 

22.0

 

Tuolumne

7.7

7.6

 

6.0

 

35.0

53.5

 

23.0

 

Yolo

3.2

3.8

 

2.7

 

29.0

33.5

 

19.0

 

Yuba

6.3

5.0

 

3.5

 

36.0

32.0

 

26.0

 

r = revised
NA = not available

Article belongs to CAR.ORG 

September
17

Governor Newsom signs new law to provide fair interest for disaster-affected homeowners

What you need to know: Governor Newsom today signed into law legislation to allow homeowners who receive insurance payments for lost or damaged property to receive the interest accrued rather than lenders. 

Click Here to Read More...

September
17

The Ventura County Agri-Tech Fair will take place on September 23 from 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. at the Courtyard by Marriott Oxnard Ventura located at 600 East Esplanade Drive, Oxnard, CA. The event is free, but registrations are required. Registration is now available online.

Speakers include:

  • Amy Storm, Senior Scientist at Larry Walker Associates
  • Dr. Lindsey Pedroncelli, Director of ANR's South Coast Research and Extension Center
  • Jodi Switzer, Water Program Director for the Farm Bureau of Ventura County
  • Colin T. Koubek, Research Associated in Entomology Lab at Cal Poly
  • D...

Click Here to Read More...

September
17

September 17, 2025

C.A.R. releases its 2026 California Housing Market Forecast

California home sales and median price are projected to inch up as housing affordability improves slightly.

  • Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 274,400 units in 2026, an increase of 2 percent from 2025's projected sales pace of 269,000.

  • California's median home price is forecast to rise 3.6 percent to $905,000 in 2026, following a projected 1.0 percent increase to $873,900 in 2025 from 2024's $865,400.

  • Housing affordability* is expected to inch up to 18 percent next year after edging up to a projected 17 percent in 2025 from 16 percent in 2024.

LOS ANGELES (Sept. 17) – Following an essentially flat housing market in 2025, California home sales are forecast to inch up in 2026, with the median home price expected to reach a new projected record of $905,000, according to a housing and economic forecast released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)

The baseline scenario of C.A.R.'s "2026 California Housing Market Forecast" sees an increase in existing single-family home sales of 2 percent next year to reach 274,400 units, up from the projected 2025 annual sales figure of 269,000. The projected 2025 figure is 0.1 percent lower compared with the pace of 269,200 homes sold in 2024.

The California median home price is forecast to rise 3.6 percent to $905,000 in 2026, following a projected 1 percent increase to $873,900 in 2025 from $865,400 in 2024. Despite softening home prices in recent months, lower interest rates and a slightly improved housing affordability environment will give room for prices to move up in the coming year.

"Home prices in California are expected to rise in 2026, but the growth pace will remain mild when compared to rates we've seen in past years," said C.A.R. President Heather Ozur, a Palm Springs REALTOR®. "For would-be buyers who sat out the competitive market during the past couple of years, that means more opportunities as inventory increases moderately and lending conditions become more favorable. Seller confidence will also improve as home prices stabilize and demand begins to rise again next year after a slow 2025."

C.A.R.'s 2026 forecast predicts U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to slow 1 percent in 2026, after a projected increase of 1.3 percent in 2025. With California's 2026 nonfarm job growth rising by 0.3 percent after climbing a projected 0.4 percent in 2025, the state's unemployment rate will increase to 5.8 percent in 2026 from 2025's projected rate of 5.6 percent and 5.3 percent in 2024.

Inflation will likely pick up in the next 12 months, but the annual average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 will dip slightly to 2.8 percent, before bouncing back up to an average of 3.0 percent next year. The average 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rate will moderate slightly to 6.6 percent in 2025 but will decline more solidly to 6.0 percent in 2026. While next year's projected average for the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate will still be higher than the levels observed in the few years prior to the pandemic, it will be lower than the long-run average of nearly 8% in the past 50 years.

Housing supply in 2026 will continue to improve and will remain near pre-pandemic levels, with active listings up nearly 10% as market conditions and the lending environment continue to improve.

"As economic uncertainty begins to clear up in the next 12 months and mortgage rates start declining more consistently in the upcoming quarters, housing sentiment will see some improvement in 2026," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "However, mounting headwinds such as the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners, the home insurance crisis, and a potential stock market bubble will remain challenges for the housing market in upcoming year," Levine continued.

2026 CALIFORNIA HOUSING FORECAST

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025p

2026f

SFH Resales (000s)

398

411.9

444.5

343

257.9

269.2

269

274.4

% Change

-1.20%

3.50%

7.90%

-22.80%

-24.80%

4.40%

-0.10%

2.00%

Median Price ($000s)

$592.40

$659.40

$784.80

$819.40

$814.30

$865.40

$873.90

$905.00

% Change

4.00%

11.30%

19.00%

4.40%

-0.60%

6.30%

1.00%

3.60%

Housing Affordability Index*

31%

32%

26%

19%

17%

16%

17%

18%

30-Yr FRM

3.90%

3.10%

3.00%

5.30%

6.80%

6.70%

6.60%

6.00%

p = projected
f = forecast

* = % of households who can afford to purchase a median-priced home

Leading the way ...® in California real estate for 120 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

                                                                # # #

 Article belongs to CAR.org

September
11

California's housing market is currently in a downturn, characterized by falling home prices and declining home sales, though some areas like San Francisco have returned to pre-pandemic affordability. The high cost of ownership versus renting persists, contributing to low buyer demand and increasing inventory levels across the state. A new state law also requires sellers of older, high-risk homes to disclose potential fire vulnerabilities, which may impact property values. 

Click Here to Read More...

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